2019 podcast predictions
What will happen in the podcasting industry this year? Here are our 2019 podcast predictions.
Smart speakers will not be big for podcasters
Many in the industry are heralding the popularity of smart speakers as a possible boon for podcasting.
Yes, Amazon's Alexa and Google Home are becoming more popular. Usage is growing by 47.9%. But people aren't using them to listen to podcasts!
According to NPR's research, most people use it to listen to music and ask about the weather.
Currently, only 1% of listening on smart speakers is for podcasts. I don't see that growing meaningfully in 2019.
Folks listen to podcasts in their earbuds, while they're doing other activities, or in their car, while they're commuting.
Yes, it's possible that 2019 will see an increase in audio content tailor-made for smart speakers (as my friends at Pacific Content have pointed out), but even then, I'd be surprised if "podcast style" entertainment goes beyond 10% of usage.
Spotify will grab 35% market share
In 2018, the percentage of podcast listens that went through Spotify increased dramatically, from 10% to 25%. I was initially skeptical of this big increase, but anecdotally, my Twitter followers affirmed that, yes, many of them were listening to podcasts on Spotify:
Spotify is especially popular for folks using an Android phone:
I see this trend continuing. I wouldn't be surprised if Spotify grabs 35% of the podcast listening audience by year's end.
2018 was the year of dynamic ad insertion; 2019 is the year of dynamic content
This past year, we saw an increase in ads being dynamically inserted in podcasts. This tech gave publishers the ability to swap ads into podcasts, based on geography, time, and other targeting factors. These ads can be removed, or replaced, dynamically at any time.
In 2019 we're going to see more publishers using this technique for the content itself. This will allow podcasters to serve niches content for specific geographic areas ("Hey Houston, we're coming to your town!") or have some segments expire (when the content is only relevant for a certain period).
Dynamic content is something Transistor is focusing on in 2019.
Is this the year Apple monetizes podcasts?
In January 2019, Apple issued a warning that it would miss its earnings targets for Q1. The cause? They're selling fewer iPhones these days.
Apple will look to services to help increase revenue in 2019, as Gruber explains here:
The press expects Apple to introduce a streaming media competitor to Netflix. They'll be investing heavily in original content, especially on TV.
Previously, Apple produced television shows like Carpool Karaoke and Planet of the Apps and tried distributing them through their Apple Music streaming platform. Their TV offerings definitely felt out of place there.
This will change in 2019. I expect Apple will break out at least three streaming apps in 2019:
These will be separate apps on iOS, Apple TV, and (I hope) on the desktop. (I predict iTunes as we know it will go away)
Also: it seems likely that Apple will introduce a "mega streaming" package that includes all their offerings.
This is where things get interesting.
Apple already owns most of the podcast market. They have the most popular podcast player. If they're getting into premium streaming content in TV, movies, music, and news could they also be working on a premium podcasting service?
I think so.
If Apple is going to invest in original video content, why wouldn't they look to audio, where they already have a major advantage?
For example, they're reviving Stephen Spielberg's "Amazing Stories" television series, which would also work as a premium podcast.
More podcast livestreaming
Using tools like Ecamm Live and Restream.io, it's easier than ever to produce a high-quality video stream, and re-broadcast it to multiple platforms at once (YouTube, Twitch, Periscope, Facebook Live).
More podcasters will be using these tools in 2019 to make their shows more interactive. Viewers can comment in real-time, and the host can respond on-air.
I think we'll also see more audio-specific livestreaming services, like Twitch, emerge this year.
Listen to more predictions
Jon Buda and I discussed dozens of expectations for 2019. Listen to the full episode here:
What did we miss? Let us know on Twitter!